Spring Statement 2026 – what you need to know

A challenging backdrop

The Spring Statement, which is now called the Spring Forecast, arrives only a few months after the Autumn 2025 Budget, which the Chancellor delayed until late November. Since then, there have been several policy reversals, including changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) reliefs and earlier plans for business rates. These decisions created uncertainty, alongside a difficult winter for markets and politics.

The recent rise in conflict in the Middle East is adding more pressure. As the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) notes, this may have a “very significant impact” on both the UK and global economies. Oil prices have already moved higher, and markets have reacted.

Why the Spring Forecast matters

Although the Chancellor wants to move towards one main Budget each year, the OBR still needs to produce updated economic figures in the spring. This is why we have a Spring Forecast instead of a Spring Statement.

This year’s update avoids major new measures, in part because the Chancellor faced pressure last year when early OBR projections forced her to quickly change benefit plans. By avoiding a full OBR assessment now, the government faces less immediate pressure to act.

Key economic trends

Recent data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows a mixed picture:

• Growth remains slow. GDP grew by only 0.1% at the end of 2025, with full‑year growth at 1.3%.
• Unemployment has risen. It reached 5.2% at the end of 2025, with youth unemployment much higher.
• Earnings growth is easing. Pay growth is slowing, especially in the private sector.
• Inflation is steady. CPI inflation was 3.0% in January and is expected to fall towards the 2% target this spring.
• Retail sales have picked up slightly. A stronger January has helped after a slow end to 2025.

The OBR’s latest forecasts

The OBR has made only modest changes compared with November’s numbers:

• Growth: lower in 2026, but a little higher in later years.
• Inflation: expected to fall slightly faster.
• Unemployment: projected to rise this year before easing again.
• Fiscal headroom: a small improvement thanks to higher tax receipts and changes in assumptions.
• Borrowing: slightly higher in the near term, but lower further out.
• Gilt yields and debt costs: both a touch lower due to interest rate expectations.

The forecasts were drafted before the impact of the Middle East conflict could have been foreseen and hence assessed.

The impact of global risks

The OBR highlights the risk from events in the Middle East. Oil prices are above the levels used in the forecast, and gilt yields rose on the day of the Chancellor’s speech. Markets are no longer expecting an interest rate cut from the Bank of England this month.

Looking ahead

There are around eight months until the Autumn Budget. By then, the economic picture could look very different. As always, we’ll continue monitoring the numbers and what they may mean for your financial plan.

If you’d like to discuss the potential impact on your long‑term goals, we’re here to help. Get in touch with your Partners Wealth Management adviser.

Please note that this article is intended for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Tax rules are subject to change and taxation will vary depending on individual circumstances. The value of investments can go down as well as up and you could get back less than you invested. Investment in funds will not be suitable for everybody and you should make yourself aware of the risks before investing and if you are unsure, you should seek professional advice.